Text Box: The 2010 fire season predictions are starting to come out. Check this page for the latest weather, El Nino, and fire predictions from the National Weather Service There are links to the right if you want to form your own opinion

 

NRCG  Predictive Services 

(updated starting April)

 

NICC Monthly National Outlook

(updated monthly)

 

Long lead seasonal forecast Maps

(updated monthly)

 

NWS El Nino page 

(updated daily)

  

Storm prediction center

 

Snowpack information 

(updated daily)   

 

weekly US Drought monitor

(updated weekly)
Text Box: April 12, 2010 Mike’s fire Discussion (I’m just the messenger) So far 2010, is shaping up to be similar to the 2003, and 2006 fire seasons. This information comes from similar El Nino years and the fire seasons that followed. The 2010 El Nino has gotten stronger so far in February, but is expected to weaken as we go toward spring. This pattern usually means we should continue to have above normal temps and below normal precip. April looks to be wet and cool. Maythrough July looks to be normal on the moisture and a little above normal on the temp. which should mean an early green up and curing of fuels, especially at lower elevations (below 4000 feet), August through September looks to be above normal on the temp. and below normal on the precip, but not as much as we have seen this winter. So far Western Montana and Northern Idaho snowpack is running at around 60-80 percent of normal, and Eastern Montana around 90-110. percent of normal. The predictions are still far enough out the confidence is still fairly low and should get more accurate each month as we get closer to summer. We will update this page monthly as the predictions come out (the first week of the month). (in a nut shell) Don’t sell your stuff, or jump off any bridges yet……. And cross your fingers and toes….. So far it looks like we are going to have at least normal to above normal conditions for large fires in 2010. Happy fire suppression 100th!! MIke

April-July Outlook